![Bar graph showing the increasing probability of La Niña over the next several months](/sites/default/files/2024-08/enso-forecast-probability-bar-graph-20240808.png)
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Out of the three climate possibilities—La Niña, El Niño, and neutral—forecasts say that neutral conditions are the most likely for the July-September season (tall gray bar above the JAS label, over 80 percent chance). By the September-November (SON) season, La Niña has the highest chance of occurring (blue bar, above 65 percent chance). NOAA Climate Prediction Center image.