profits-losses-different-betting-scenarios.png

Each bar chart shows the cumulative profit or loss from betting after 1,000 simulated basketball seasons. The amount of profit or loss is shown across the bottom of the chart, and the height of the bar indicates how many seasons had that total. When you bet randomly (top), you lose as often as you win, and your average profit is close to zero.  When you bet following a decision support system that risks more when you think the Bulls' odds of winning are higher, you make more than $500 on average even if you can't predict their odds of winning perfectly (bottom). NOAA Climate.gov image, based on data from Brian Zimmerman.