File name: precip-ENSO-rank-comparison-bar-chart.png
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The strength of the NMME winter precipitation forecast over North America usually tracks the strength of the ENSO forecast, as measured by the traditional Niño-3.4 index, quite well. Four of the five strongest precipitation forecasts had a good-to-perfect match with forecast ENSO strength (only the forecast from the fall of 2011 had a so-so match). The forecast for this winter, however, which is the sixth strongest precipitation forecast in the 1991-2024 record, has the worst match – the strength of the forecast ENSO event only ranks 18th.