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Fig 3. Observed and forecasted (NOAA GEFSv12) wind speed in the polar stratosphere compared to the natural range of variability (faint blue shading). For the GEFSv12 forecast issued on 18 December 2024, the winds at 60 degrees North (the mean location of the polar vortex) are forecast to remain stronger than normal for at least the next 2 weeks (bold red line). By mid-January, the forecasted strength of the polar stratospheric winds becomes very uncertain (light red lines). NOAA Climate.gov image, adapted from original by Laura Ciasto.