Climate Projections | NOAA Climate.gov

Brief periods of dangerous humid heat arrive decades early

May 12, 2020

Climate models project dangerous combinations of heat and humidity by the end of the 21st century. New research says these extremes are already happening.

Annual forecast challenge and other research highlight the complexity of sea ice prediction

April 8, 2020

In 2015, NOAA's Climate Program Office (CPO) invited grant proposals from sea ice and climate scientists looking to better understand and predict Arctic sea ice behavior, on timescales ranging from days to decades. This is our second story on some of the resulting research.

A pair of maps of the CONUS with shaded contours showing increasing chances of above or below average temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom)

Temperature and precipitation outlooks for February 2020

February 5, 2020

Across a wide swath of the United States from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic, February is more likely to be above average than below average in terms of both temperature and precipitation.

How can Earth's climate be predicted decades from now when weather can't be predicted 2 weeks from now?

January 23, 2014

Weather and climate occur on different scales of time and space, and depend on different aspects of Earth's environment. Weather describes atmospheric conditions at a particular time and place. Climate is the overall statistical characteristics of weather and environmental conditions, such as long-term averages and ranges of variability, for a given place and season.

Are there positive benefits from global warming?

January 23, 2014

Yes, there will probably be some short-term and long-term positive benefits from global warming, but if a "business as usual" approach to emitting heat-trapping gases is maintained at the present rate, or faster, then the negative costs and impacts of global warming are very likely to far outweigh the positive benefits over the course of this century

Is global warming a threat to humans? If so, how?

January 23, 2014

Yes, health care providers and insurers alike recognize that global warming is a threat to humans.

What harm will global warming cause?

January 23, 2014

Potential effects of global warming include sea level rise, more frequent and more extreme heat waves, intensification of wet and dry regional climate patterns.

A global warming of 1.5°F (0.85°C) seems small, so why is this change in global temperature a concern?

January 23, 2014

Considering some locations experience temperature swings of 30°F or more in a single day, warming of 1.5°F (0.85°C) might seem small, but Earth's annual temperatures are very stable when climate isn't changing.

Projected increase in extreme precipitation

Prepare for more downpours: Heavy rain has increased across most of the United States, and is likely to increase further

July 10, 2019

Extreme precipitation events have grown more frequent since the start of the twentieth century, and such events are likely to become even more frequent over the twenty-first.

Globe map of late 21st- century changes in vertical wind shear centered on the Western Hemisphere

Warming may increase risk of rapidly intensifying hurricanes along U.S. East Coast

May 24, 2019

During active hurricane eras, a persistent zone of high vertical wind shear along the U.S. East Coast provides protection from rapidly intensifying hurricanes. With high emissions, that shear is projected to relax.

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