reason for the spring barrier
April 30, 2015

Why is it so difficult to make a good ENSO prediction during the Northern Hemisphere spring? 

April 24, 2015

ENSO is a complicated thing to model. What are the challenges, and how can we overcome them?

April 9, 2015

El Nino conditions strengthened in March. Where do forecasters think we're going from here?

ENSO model forecasts thumbnail
February 19, 2015

The model predictions during 2014 were not that shabby.  A major, strong El Niño was not well justified by the predictions. 

November 20, 2014

After some very cold weather this month, folks are likely wondering if the early chill is a harbinger of things to come this winter. "Not necessarily," explains Mike Halpert of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in this week's ENSO blog post.

CFSv2 ensemble forecast Nino3.4 sea-surface temperature
August 6, 2014

The chance of an El Nino has dropped to about 65%. What led to this change in the forecast?

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