Good article!! The MJO effects on the heat distribution of earth is very complex and you did a great job breaking it down, however this winter the strong MJO signal has not really been too pronounced and was locked up with the strong negative phase of the Indian ocean dipole that has now transitioned more neutral and appears to be going positive for first time in a few years. Moreover the MJO appeared to be stuck in phase 3 and 4 most of the Winter with weak propagation into the West Pacific where a typhoon almost always forms if the MJO strengthens there. Along those lines the biggest affect the MJO has had on this Winter occurred in March 2015 which spawned cyclone Pam and generated the strong oceanic kelvin waves that fueled the super dud el nino but left the global atmosphere with very high specific humidity levels. The incredible MJO episode that March and April shifted the pressure gradients and reached a threshold along the equator that strengthened the sub tropical jet stream and positive pacific north america pattern. This lower stronger jets main influences and pathways are dictated by the intensity of the azores high and arctic high or strength of the negative phase. When the polar vortex becomes unstable the planetary waves are amplified and impinge on the energized subtropical lower latitude jet that established following the 2015 cyclone Pam storm. Lastly the low solar min phase and hadley cell recirculative properties supporting lower latitude storms is playing a big role and next Winter El Nino coupled with positive phase IOD will allow MJO to propagate all the way to the east pacific and lock us in a very wet El Nino. The state of California could experience a two month long "Arc" storm if this pans out from what im seeing! Bottom line next Winter is looking extremely interesting!!
Cheers, paul huntington
Good article!! The MJO effects on the heat distribution of earth is very complex and you did a great job breaking it down, however this winter the strong MJO signal has not really been too pronounced and was locked up with the strong negative phase of the Indian ocean dipole that has now transitioned more neutral and appears to be going positive for first time in a few years. Moreover the MJO appeared to be stuck in phase 3 and 4 most of the Winter with weak propagation into the West Pacific where a typhoon almost always forms if the MJO strengthens there. Along those lines the biggest affect the MJO has had on this Winter occurred in March 2015 which spawned cyclone Pam and generated the strong oceanic kelvin waves that fueled the super dud el nino but left the global atmosphere with very high specific humidity levels. The incredible MJO episode that March and April shifted the pressure gradients and reached a threshold along the equator that strengthened the sub tropical jet stream and positive pacific north america pattern. This lower stronger jets main influences and pathways are dictated by the intensity of the azores high and arctic high or strength of the negative phase. When the polar vortex becomes unstable the planetary waves are amplified and impinge on the energized subtropical lower latitude jet that established following the 2015 cyclone Pam storm. Lastly the low solar min phase and hadley cell recirculative properties supporting lower latitude storms is playing a big role and next Winter El Nino coupled with positive phase IOD will allow MJO to propagate all the way to the east pacific and lock us in a very wet El Nino. The state of California could experience a two month long "Arc" storm if this pans out from what im seeing! Bottom line next Winter is looking extremely interesting!!
Cheers, paul huntington