Climate simulations from multiple models indicate that future changes in the patterns and frequency of tropical cyclone genesis will largely be governed by human-induced changes in atmospheric circulation.
Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) aims to improve predictability of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Atlantic. The PIRATA Northeast Extension (PNE) recently deployed buoys into the northeastern reachers of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Follow the journey through this story map.
Fifth-warmest March on record. Near-record-low sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere. Many precipitation disruptions consistent with La Niña climate pattern.
From ranks to probabilities, our blogger runs you through the numbers that add up to NOAA's forecast that La Niña is likely to last through summer.
Record drought conditions across West raise concerns for summer dry season.
Seasonal predictions may be routine, “subseasonal” predictions are more difficult. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large complex of tropical thunderstorms, dominates subseasonal phenomena over the tropics. A new global atmosphere-ocean-land-sea ice coupled climate model shows an average MJO prediction skill of 30 days, placing it among the world’s best MJO prediction models.
A new study finds that El Niño events will have greater amplitude and persistence in the second half of the 21st century, leading to increased global impacts on temperature and precipitation.
For the second year in a row, NOAA scientists observed a record annual increase in atmospheric levels of methane, a powerful, heat-trapping greenhouse gas that’s the second biggest contributor to human-caused global warming after carbon dioxide.
A 2021 Nature Geoscience paper argued that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) started slowing in the 19th century, and slowed more in the mid-20th century. But a new Nature Geoscience paper suggests that AMOC changes are still uncertain.
A first-of-its-kind guidebook tells planners how to manage and mitigate urban heat. The new book covers urban heat islands and building urban heat resilience.