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File: ENSOblog_NMME_plume_graph_20211108.png

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Alternate Text: NMME climate model runs for central tropical Pacific temperatures in late 2021 to early 2022Climate model forecasts for the Niño3.4 Index. Dynamical model data (black line) from the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/" target="_blank">North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)</a>: darker gray envelope shows the range of 68% of all model forecasts; lighter gray shows the range of 95% of all model forecasts. NOAA Climate.gov image from University of Miami data
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NMME climate model runs for central tropical Pacific temperatures in late 2021 to early 2022Climate model forecasts for the Niño3.4 Index. Dynamical model data (black line) from the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/" target="_blank">North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)</a>: darker gray envelope shows the range of 68% of all model forecasts; lighter gray shows the range of 95% of all model forecasts. NOAA Climate.gov image from University of Miami data

Image caption

Climate model forecasts for the Niño3.4 temperature anomalies in late 2021 and 2022 . Average dynamical model data (black line) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): darker gray envelope shows the range of 68% of all model forecasts; lighter gray shows the range of 95% of all model forecasts. Most of the plume—that is, most of the model runs—stay beneath the La Niña threshold this winter. NOAA Climate.gov image from University of Miami data.