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File: ENSOblog_cartoon2_coinflip_20220421.png

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Alternate Text: Two-panel cartoon showing a coin flip has no predictability in most situations but some predictability if we can observe the initital conditions of the toss very carefully
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Two-panel cartoon showing a coin flip has no predictability in most situations but some predictability if we can observe the initital conditions of the toss very carefully

Image caption

Under normal circumstances (left), a coin toss is unpredictable by climate standards—based on the long-term average, any single toss has a 50 percent chance of heads and a 50 percent chance of tails. Carefully measuring the coin's initial position and speed and then using the laws of physics to predict its trajectory can increase the predictability. NOAA Climate.gov cartoon.