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File: ENSOblog_cartoon_NMMEjellybean_20230524.jpg

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Alternate Text: cartoon depicting a jellybean jar and a colection of guesses as to how many it contains
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cartoon depicting a jellybean jar and a colection of guesses as to how many it contains

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For questions ranging from “How many jellybeans are in this jar?” to “Will El Niño develop later this year?” the average of multiple individual guesses usually ends up closer to the actual number than any single guess because the errors in individual guesses (or forecasts) cancel each other out. NOAA Climate.gov cartoon.