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File: enso-forecast-probability-bar-graph-20240808.png

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Alternate Text: Bar graph showing the increasing probability of La Niña over the next several months
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Bar graph showing the increasing probability of La Niña over the next several months

Image caption

Out of the three climate possibilities—La Niña, El Niño, and neutral—forecasts say that neutral conditions are the most likely for the July-September season (tall gray bar above the JAS label, over 80 percent chance). By the September-November (SON) season, La Niña has the highest chance of occurring (blue bar, above 65 percent chance). NOAA Climate Prediction Center image.