Analyzing Hurricane Dorian track forecast uncertainties

Hurricane Dorian made landfall in The Bahamas as a Category 5 hurricane in September 2019. Credit: NOAA

A new study from scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute of Marine & Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) investigates Hurricane Dorian’s track forecast uncertainties. 

The paper, published today in Monthly Weather Review, examined a collection (ensemble) of hurricane model runs for Hurricane Dorian to learn why some models performed better than others. This analysis included two objectives: (1) determining the usefulness of ensembles for understanding how hurricanes move, and (2) correctly examining what is happening around the tropical cyclone to accurately predict its track 5 to 7 days later.

Read more at the link below.