Atlantic hurricane seasons are expected to see bigger swings in activity

Nighttime imagery of Hurricane Ida over the Gulf of Mexico. Credit: NOAA

Tropical cyclones (TCs), specifically hurricanes, are among the most deadly and costly disasters facing the U.S. each year. Global climate models suggest that they may become less frequent but more intense in the future. In a new Science Advances study, a research team from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) shifts the focus from trends in overall hurricane activity to focus on year-to-year changes. The results show that this interannual variability has already increased and project a 36 percent increase by the middle of the 21st century.