Developing dynamically constrained projections of ENSO activity and associated coastal impacts

ENSO events can bring significant impacts to islands and coasts. Credit: U.S Affiliated Pacific Islands/Drought.gov

In response to the escalating risks and challenges posed by the evolving climate system, a new research project led by Fei-Fei Jin, a professor at University of Hawaii, aims to enhance multi-decadal projections of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its profound impacts on weather, climate, and coastal hazards. Recognizing the uncertainties in existing projections due to climate model deficiencies, the project proposes innovative methodologies to dynamically constrain ENSO projections. Three primary goals drive the research agenda: developing dynamically-constrained methodologies for ENSO projections, integrating refined ENSO projections with observed coastal conditions to project littoral risks for the Pacific rim, and extending risk projections to vulnerable Hawaiian and U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands.