Fifty years of getting ENSO predictions *mostly* correct

A very high-level view of Earth’s atmosphere. Credit: Adobe Stock

It’s been 50 years since Bill Quinn of Oregon State University and Klaus Wyrtki of the University of Hawaii made the first attempt to forecast the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While their initial prediction was incorrect, it marked the beginning of a journey toward understanding and predicting one of the most influential climate phenomena on Earth. So, what is El Niño and why is it so important to anticipate the timing of the cycle?

ENSO is a climate phenomenon made up of two states, or phases: “El Niño,” and “La Niña.” When the planet is not in either phase, it is said to be “ENSO-Neutral.” On average, El Niño and La Niña occur every 3-7 years and each phase lasts about 9-12 months. ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon, so there must be changes in both the ocean and atmosphere. If only one appears to be in El Niño or La Niña, the tropical Pacific ocean is ENSO-Neutral. Each phase of ENSO has distinct impacts that reverberate globally.