Refining forecasts of the California Current System

The California Current System supports a variety of fisheries. Credit: NOAA

Along the west coast of the U.S., the dynamic and very biodiverse California Current System (CCS) supports a variety of fisheries and marine services. Researchers use Earth System Models (ESMs) to predict how the CCS may change over time, but these models have limited ability to represent these processes at a high resolution. The Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program supported a new study that improves bias and accuracy in predicting future CCS conditions. MAPP-funded scientist Mercedes Pozo Buil and collaborators Jerome Fiechter, Michael Jacox, and Steven Bograd of the University of California, Santa Cruz, along with Michael A. Alexander of NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory, explored three methods of reducing bias in ESMs.