Seasonal hurricane predictions at GFDL

Observations (left) and predictions (right) for sea surface temperature anomalies and cyclones. Credit: NOAA

If you live along a U.S. coast, you’re likely familiar with NOAA’s seasonal hurricane forecasts. Released each year in May (and updated in August for the Atlantic region), these forecasts provide an important preview of what each year’s Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons will bring.

“Seasonal predictions provide valuable lead time for communities to prepare for potential hurricanes,” said Hiro Murakami, a research physical scientist at GFDL. “This allows for early warning systems to be activated, facilitating organized evacuations and ensuring that residents have sufficient time to secure their homes and belongings.”

The forecasts also allow authorities to plan for the upcoming season, prepping emergency response teams, stocking up on supplies, making sure evacuation plans are up to date, and more. But what data goes into these seasonal hurricane predictions, and how does NOAA make them?