Study finds that a larger than normal Atlantic warm pool can lead to an increase in US heat waves

Ocean conditions can influence terrestrial heatwaves. Credit: NOAA

Heat extremes are the number one weather-related cause of death in the United States, prompting the climate community to study the driving forces behind these extreme events to improve their prediction. A new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds an increase in summertime heat wave occurrence over the US Great Plains is linked to a larger than normal tropical Atlantic warm pool.

The Atlantic warm pool is a large body of warm water in the low latitudes of the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and western tropical North Atlantic. Using observational data and model simulations, this study finds that the year-to-year variability of the tropical Atlantic warm pool influences heat wave occurrence over the US Great Plains during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer months (June – September).

This study, led by NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, and Mississippi State University’s Northern Gulf Institute, finds that a larger than normal Atlantic warm pool influences atmospheric circulation patterns over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, promoting a “heat dome” pattern over the Great Plains. This pattern reduces cloud cover and enhances surface warming and heat wave occurrence.

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