Targeting key atmospheric patterns to improve ocean forecasts and marine resource management

California Current map. Credit: NOAA National Marine Ecosystem Status

Accurate sea temperature forecasts are crucial for protecting marine ecosystems, especially in regions like the California Current, which supports vital fisheries and coastal resources. A new Journal of Climate study analyzed nearly 40 years of past predictions to understand why some forecasts in the California Current are more reliable than others. Researchers found that forecasts tend to remain reliable for longer periods, extending up to nearly a year, when they better represent key atmospheric drivers like sea level pressure and the Pacific meridional mode, a climate pattern that drives temperature and wind shifts between the northern and tropical Pacific. This insight provides a clear target for improving climate models and significantly enhancing our ability to predict ocean conditions, helping communities and policymakers respond to climate change and protect marine ecosystems.