Guest blogger Dennis Hartmann makes the case that warm waters in the western tropical Pacific—part of the North Pacific Mode climate pattern—are behind the weird U.S. winter weather of the past two seasons.

An Oklahoma rancher feeds supplemental pellets to cattle during drought. Photo credit: Jeff Vanuga, USDA, via USDA NRCS Photo Gallery. Page/s that contain this image : Drought Las ...

Wetlands along the Patuxent River, Maryland. Source : . NOAA Photo Library. Photo credit: Mary Hollinger, NOAA NODC. ...

Government officials have already announced a potential water rationing program as well as expected blackouts to conserve electricity in case rains do not pick up. If they don’t, Brazil is almost certainly facing its driest back-to-back rainy seasons in at least 35 years.

How are conditions related to drought likely to change? Colors on each map show experts' estimates of how conditions related to drought are likely to change by the end of the next month. Areas where experts expect below-average precipitation or above-average temperatures (which increase evaporation) may see drought develop, persist, or worsen. Areas with forecasts for above-average precipitation may see drought conditions improve or end.

What was the average temperature for the month? Colors show the average monthly temperature across the contiguous United States. White and very light areas had average temperatures near 50°F. Blue areas on the map were cooler than 50°F; the darker the blue, the cooler the average temperature. Orange to red areas were warmer than 50°F; the darker the shade, the warmer the monthly average temperature.

Where is severe weather likely at this time of year? Shading on each map reflects how often severe weather occurred within 25 miles during a 30-year base period. The darker the shading, the higher the number of severe weather reports near that date. For this map, severe weather encompasses tornadoes, thunderstorm winds over 58 miles per hour, and hail larger than three-quarters of an inch in diameter.

Where was the annual temperature warmer or cooler than usual? Colors show where average annual temperature was above or below its 1991-2020 average. Blue areas experienced cooler-than-usual temperatures for the year while areas shown in red were warmer than usual. The darker the color, the larger the difference from the long-term average temperature.

What are the chances for various temperature conditions next month? Shaded areas show where average temperature has an increased chance of being warmer or cooler than usual. The darker the shading, the greater the chance for the indicated condition. White areas have equal chances for average temperatures that are below, near, or above the long-term average for the month.

What are the chances that total precipitation will be below, near, or above average next month? Colors show where total precipitation has an increased chance of being higher or lower than usual during the next month. The darker the shading, the greater the chance for the indicated condition. White areas have equal chances for precipitation totals that are below, near, or above the long-term average (median) for the month.