Michelle, OK, I’ll be more specific. The most recent ENSO event, a La Nina began in late 2017. The earliest official ENSO forecast of the November/December/January period I can find is at the link below. https://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/figure3-2.gif The chart shows a very low probability of a La Nina in NDJ (about 11%) while the probability of an El Nino is about 60%. I would call that a poor prediction. When you say you have the ability to predict ENSO events “several seasons” ahead of the event I presume that means at least 9 to 12 months prior. The example you give above of a prediction 2 months ahead would not seem to fit that crierion.