I do appreciate your efforts to provide a good and objective paper, however one thing you should perhaps mention is that we are now in the middle of a cold interdecadal period (which probably will last till mid 2020); in 2012 something like this happened, many scientist were confirming El Nino, but finally just a modoki occurred; the reason behind is that we are in cold PDO and I think this fact is not being taken into account. Nowadays, how the heat content has decreased significantly in the last weeks, and how subsurface T anomalies has receded could suggest that El Nino (if happens at all) will be weak in intensity and short lived, unless a new kelvin wave start travelling west-east (is that possible?). In any case the best thing is to wait till August to have a better picture. I will be visiting this site.