Very thorough explanation. However, I think we are disregarding the effect of the Cromwell current on all these process (not to mention Humboldt); Cromwell (core at 13C) is injecting around 30 Sv in front of Ecuador waters. I did very basic calculations on how long will take to cool down 27 to 20 C, assuming not extra flow hot water on the surface, and it was 3.2-3.5 months (quite rough numbers). The subsurface positives anomalies in the eastern side have practically disappeared in nearly three months. Perhaps would be recommendable to consider these currents. Also the fact that we are in cold interdecadal period (till ca 2025) should be also considered. Sorry if did commit any blasphemy.