RE: Autocorrelation
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It is true that considerably predictability exists by virtue of persistence alone. The models attempt to improve upon this baseline reference. If the persistence (or autocorrelation) score is regarded as a zero-skill baseline, then the skill of the models does not appear very impressive. But one might challenge use of persistence as a zero-skill baseline, when it can also be considered as part of the forecast, and therefore have value in its own right.