The three missed forecasts for La Nina were those in the autumns of 2000, 2005 and 2008, as shown on the graph. All 3 cases ended up having weak La Nina. As for the ensuing winters in southern California (the part of the state most strongly affected by ENSO, especially in late winter), during Jan-Feb-Mar season we did observe drier than average conditions in 2001 (a few months after the missed forecasts were made), drier than average conditions in 2009, and in 2006 it was wetter than normal in central and northern California but near to slightly below normal in southern California. So we see that the observations did tend to follow the expected impacts, but not unfailingly. That is a typical rate of observing ENSO teleconnections--they show a tendency but not a guaranteed outcome.