I'm going to stick my neck out and ask a crazy question. In the Pacific Northwest, a lot of weather talk is revolving around "the blob," which is a nickname someone gave to the area of the northern Pacific that has seen quite warm temperatures even into this northern hemisphere's autumn season. I'm reading news stories about fishing crews near the gulf of Alaska pulling in fish such as tuna that would normally be found much farther to the south. Meanwhile ENSO discussions are saying "Yeah the models say El Nino coming but the facts don't completely show it." Meanwhile where I live the talk is all about "the blob." I don't know if N. Pacific oscillations are something you deal with, but: (1) Could what is going on in the N. Pacific be causing ENSO conditions to be somewhat contradictory in comparison to ENSO models and (2) Even if El Nino continues to play this game of hide and seek, could "the blob" create El Nino-like conditions in the U.S. by itself during the coming winter months? Meanwhile on the southern front, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology seems to be backing off (somewhat) on El Nino: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-22/nrn-el-nino-reprieve/5832818