RE: RE: Global warming and Change in ENSO forecast skill stats?
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As Michelle said above, there are many indications of a climate regime shift, particularly affecting ENSO, around 1999-2000. Recently, several ideas about possible weakening/slowing/changing of the Jet Stream have been proposed; while these ideas have solid physical bases, it is difficult to identify the cause-and-effect relationships in the very short observed record. However, this is a topic of extremely active research.