This isn't a forecast but more of an overall guidance. NOAA historically does not make a weather prediction but more of a percentage of what possibly could happen. They do not state things that they think will happen. It is literally the safest way to make a forecast by not forecasting a thing but just saying there maybe a chance for this in the huge section of the nation. I would like NOAA to go back and look at their so called percentage forecast last year and then look at how well that worked out for you. If I remember correctly you completely blew the entire percentage forecast bad. I don't think you could have been more wrong than what you ended up being. So now looking at this year with a good analog package with a weak Nino 3-4 and years such as 76-77 and 93-94 this years so called forecast above will be wrong. How was your November forecast??? I am pretty sure you thought it was going to be warm and it was record breaking.