Aside from NOAA's budget, it is true that NOAA's climate forecasts factor in all of the known influences on seasonal climate fluctuations, all supported by the historical observations. They are not made using dice or roulette wheels, or by licking one's finger and holding it up to the wind. Science is used wherever possible, and when there are no clues, the "equal chances" forecast is given, with no tilt of the odds in any direction. The smallness of the usual tilts of the odds reveals in an honest way the fairly large uncertainty of the forecasts, even when an ENSO event is in progress.