So we have a Semi El Nino. That's cool. But what about the gigantic swath of ocean directly upstream from California (my home) and the continental US which is currently 2-4 degrees C above normal? To me, this seems like it would play a pretty big part in our winter season as low pressure systems drop down over it, then over us, and churn out rain. Current: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomp.12.4.2014.gif In 1997 we had had a stronger El Nino, but a remarkably similar warm patch in the mid-latitude Eastern Pacific, upstream from us. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1997/anomnight.11.21.1997.gif Thoughts?