While EN is important, I am wondering if we are seeing more then a "Temporary shift" in the semi permanent upper air patters, which of course leads to the discussion on warmer oceans directing u/s or is u/s directing new oceans changes as well as the impact of warming on the oceans. It seems, and much to early to know for sure, but seems that U/A patterns are slightly shifting from their previous semi permanent location. and they are heavily impacted by warming and moisture transports. EN as you say "may or may not" be doing something, but I am starting to wonder if the U/A shifting are having bigger impact as oceans heat up? Just an obs, as do not have the resources to look at such things, but seems suspicious with warming going on over shall we say "7/8th of earth /