Good discussion Michelle on the possible impact/implication of March conditions on the upcoming winter ENSO prospects. I like your scatter plots. It would have been nicer and visually so intuitive if only those dots for various historical years were color marked with red/blue which did eventually turn out to be El Nino/La Nina in the following winter, with the size of the dot proportional to the size(?) of the event. I do realize it is always so easy to suggest anything... :-) Thanks -Muthu