I agree with you about the messages provided by some (maybe many) media outets. Instead of sticking to the goal of informing or educating the readership, they seem to be looking for an attention-getting, emotionally provocative and stimulating newspiece. They have learned that more definitive and dramatic stories bring in larger returns than acccurate and informative ones, and know that NOW is always the best time to go for those returns. It is partly the general public's fault that this is the way it is, because many people are looking for something intense or extreme, and need excitement more than detailed information. For people interested in the raw facts and numbers, as you would be, some of the news articles include them faithfully along with the possibly overly dramatized descriptions or interpretations. I have developed a nose for detecting when the statements do not cleanly reflect the facts and data. In the case of the El Nino forecasts, not only do some media outlets exaggerate the prospects for a strong event (both for this year and last year, but especially last year), but some scientists looking to move up the ladder faster may take advantage of the media's bias toward extremes and present a bold and extreme forecast (perhaps from just one model; it is not good to rely on a single model) in order to get their visibility enhanced rapidly, hoping the forecast will verify and knowing that if it doesn't, people will forget by that time but still remember their name. So we have the potential for two different groups to be motivated by similar factors (increasing their visibility and/or income), neither helping to disseminate the forecast information in an accurate and balanced manner. For those wanting to learn the truth more than read a stimulating and non-boring story, the best strategy is to read several articles, not just one or two, and to look for the objective numerical information (e.g., probabilities for El Nino given by forecast producing centers) and piece together a cluster of factual material without words such as "disaster" or "devastating" coloring the information or its interpretation. Even though you are absolutely correct in saying it is too early to know beyond reasonable doubt that El Nino will occur this coming fall and winter (due to the spring barrier), there will be stories already (now) about the "GOOD CHANCE" for El Nino, with the possibility of a strong one having devastating impacts in the U.S. and abroad. We have to live with these articles out there, and learn which writers give a more even-handed presentation vs. which give one with an attention-getting, emotional spin that make us think "Oh, come on, let's get real". We have to compensate for this in our minds to come up with an appropriately adjusted understanding of the truth.