Great post. This question came up in a discussion today - how is the 90% chance derived that the El Nino will continue this summer? Is it based strictly on probabilities derived from the IRI forecast plume (e.g., 90% of the models agree). Are is there some subjectivity involved based on expert opinion? BTW, using expert opinion to adjust the probabilities is not necessarily a bad thing, IMO. I wasn't sure. Thanks.