You are correct that increased rainfall this winter in the Central Valley is questionable. The extended Pacific jet stream tends to bring increased rainfall to mainly southern California and the southwestern States (including snowpack as well as rainfall at lower elevations), so the San Juaquin Valley is in a better position to get good rainfall than the Sacramento Valley. Each event plays out differently, however, and we can't expect all events to bring the same patterns of rainfall departure from normal. I would say there is reason for hope for California this winter, especially late winter (Jan-Mar) with this developing El Nino that is already at moderate strength before mid-summer.