I am a hydrologist and recognize the value of using past events as analogies for likely future conditions. But as we all know, systems are changing, making predictions riskier than ever. Yes, we have computing power and statistical methods Sir Gilbert Walker could not have dreamed of - but we are also witnessing climate change at a rate faster than any in recorded history. Of particular interest (to me) is the weakening and disorganized polar jet stream. Much of last winter's record cold in the midwestern and northeastern U.S. was associated with the weakening polar jet. This suggests to me that using analogous years prior to this weakening is very risky. I don't have a better predictor for you than good old analogous years, but I suspect our predicted outcomes will be more wrong than usual this winter. BTW - there truly are el Nino effects right now - but they are mostly in the ocean where warm temperatures dominate the northern latitudes and species assemblages from southern latitudes are being found far from home.