Again, I agree that analogues should not be used as the sole source of a real-time forecast, unless there is nothing else available. There is considerable uncertainty associated with the winter forecast for precipitation in California, but the tilt of the odds toward good results in the southern part of the state nonetheless exists, due to the expected extension of the Pacific jet stream even in the presence of climate change that may well be altering the usual jet patterns farther east in the US during winter.