It appears the NOAA is lagging behind the Japanese Meteorology Association (JMA) since the JMA declared an El Niño during the summer of 2014. JMA is also forecasting possible historic El Niño conditions later this year. In light of this news, should the NOAA return to ERSSTv3b (without the high frequency filter) since it appears to have been a better indicator of El Niño conditions than the current ERSSTv4? Or should the NOAA expand the 3.4 zone under the current ERSSTv4? The new v4 dataset show a four month period of 0° C variation during the summer of 2014. How odd it would be if this is indeed the largest recorded El Niño, and one which the NOAA never saw coming. JMA El Nino Index: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html#fig1 JMA El Nino Forecast: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html#fig9 ERSSTv3b: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_ERSSTv3b.shtm ERSSTv4: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtmll