Hello, I'm an absolute newbie to this stuff, so please be gentle. :) In looking at the EQSST_xt.gif on the NOAA site (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/data-access/EQSST_xt.gif) that shows SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific along the x-axis and time along the y-axis, it looks like exceptionally large El Ninos are bracketed by strong La Ninas. This can be seen around the 1997 El Nino and the 2010 El Nino. Since there has been no strong La Nina recently, does this argue against a strong El Nino this year? I guess what I'm asking is, do the models look for long period patterns in the El Nino cycle? Thank you for this blog! --Steve