The latest state-of-the-art models are run with global sea surface temperatures (including Blob and warm Indian ocean) and most of them are still providing El Nino-like impacts over the United States.  Because the models include these features, at this point,  we are not projecting that the Blob and warm Indian Ocean would substantially disrupt the El Nino signal.  Of course, keep in mind this winter could also be influenced by other, less predictable features like the AO/NAO and PNA.  El Nino only allows forecasters to potentially "explain" a certain amount of rainfall or temperature variability, which is why we never guarantee these impacts.

Earlier on this blog, we posted an article by Dennis Hartmann  ( LINK  ) who discussed a possible tropical Pacific link with the Ridiculously Reslient Ridge (RRR) over the U.S.  The tropics now have a very different pattern because of El Nino and, so as a result, it is more likely that the the RRR will weaken as we get into the winter.