Why is Winter 57-58 missing from the analogs ? It is clearly the strongest mirror to this event given conditions in the Northern Pacific and the strength (potentially) of this event. It seems that would be a better comparison to make, particularly with ramifications for the S/W and N/E. California did not receive historically high precipitation in that event, but N/E did. The lack of such precip. in California was due to the lack of temperature gradient within the area where El Nino would pipe in moisture. This may be a major Nino, but under conditions which are unique with respect to other global teleconnections not consistent with 65-66 and 82-83. I think you are really missing a key part of this cycle.