Strong El Ninos
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Thanks for this nice site, but I do have a bone to pick with you - when presenting potential effects of a "Strong" El Nino, 65-66 does not qualify as one, as for example, it ranks as having only the 7th lowest SOI value and the 9th warmest Nino 3.4 value (based on ERSSTv4 data) of all events since 1950. I rank this as a moderate event. My point is that if you are going to describe the potential effects of a strong El Nino, you need to limit that discussion to only those events, otherwise it is misleading - a lot of this is going around these days. The recent strong events were: 82-83 and 97-98 and perhaps 72-73, 91-92, and 57-58, depending on your method of classification. And as you know, only two of those were in the super category - 82-83 and 97-98 - these two deserve a special place for themselves and they both produced very similar effects across the Pacific. Comparing 82-83 to 65-66 is just not a good fit.
It remains to be seen just how strong this event will get this year. It is trying to be strong and the model predictions of Nino 3.4 definitely show a very strong event, but we shall see.