hello fellow readers - all those of you asking "what is going to be the effect of XYZ climate phenomenon in ABC location on PQR date" should slow down and reread the WHOLE post and ALL the comments. Because the short answer to your questions is "no one can know for certain." There are changes in the likelihood of certain events but as the authors point out (repeatedly and patiently) nearly opposite effects could occur as a result of ENSO because of the myriad interactions with other phenomena." Interestingly the forecast models don't currently show a strong precipitation signal for Northern California.