Thank you for responding. May I suggest an entire post giving the scientific explanation for why El Ninos typically peak at the end of the year. If this is an active area of research, then tell us what the current thinking is. This is after all the ENSO blog. If the models predict a peaking of Nino3.4 in the late fall, early winter and past historical data shows this to be true, then what information is going into the models?