Dear Ken It is very interesting your interpretation however I think that it will be more real to consider that El Nino began in 2014 in your second graph wherein you compare monthly SST indices. Your interpretation can change if you compare actual El Nino 2014-15 with 1982-83 and 2014-15 Ninos. Also your comparison will be better if you include 1991-92 data when El Nino finished in 1993 like actual El Nino that had a duration of more than 2 years. It is interesting also to see that trade winds persist stronger than normal near south america during extreme El Nino such as David Halpern explained in a conference in Peru on june 2015; he concluded that not statistical significance was observed in winds intensity in the buoys located east of 140 W during Nino or not Nino years; but he found big changes in the high atmosphere more than 20 kms higher than sea level. El Nino 2014-16 is between the 3 strongest of the last 80 years and the end of the actual will be in Peruvian coast weaker than 82-82 and 97-98 due that part of the energy was liberated between april-june 2014. Actually in the faculty of fisheries of the Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, we are writing a paper that will demonstrate that El Nino Mechanism and the beginning is very similar in ALL NINOS, however due to the numerous factors that influence its advance (winds intensity and DIRECTION, Cromwell Current,Salinity, Radiation, etc) the end of El Nino it is not predictable actually because all the factors are not considered in the different models. At last 2009-10 El Nino near Peru?