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The 1982-83 event is usually considered to be the 2nd strongest El Nino since 1950, second only to 1997-98. But that is when we view the entire event, in retrospect. If we view only the spring and summer portion of the event, then 1982-83 is not strong enough to come in second place, because 1987-88 had a very warm spring and summer, since it was the second portion of a two-year event (1986-87 and 1987-88). If we wait a few months and then include this autumn in the data, the 1987-88 event will likely fade in its ranking, because it weakened fairly early toward the end of the year and during winter 1987-88. The big quesiton is where THIS CURRENT El Nino will end up ranking. Will it beat 1987-88 and even possibly 1982-83? Many of us think it may have a hard time beating 1997-98, but peak strength is hard to predict and even that is possible.

In reply to by Eddie