Have you ever thought El Niño is one of the many oceanographic/meteorological events occurring at similar times in a unit called Earth (Gaia)? Also what about AMO and PDO? Why do not you mention them at all. Why being so strong this El Niño in 3-4, it has practically not impact in 1-2 area. For example rain in Ecuador, during 1997-1998 rain started in September, now rain has shyly started in the first week of January, with some places where is not rain at all. I think we should hold the horses a little bit, be more paused. About its peak. You own data says that heat content in 180-100W (5N-5S) started to decreased by the firs week of November and is 50% less now, that the SOI is around -5 (neutral situation) Any way too many questions. Respectfully Franklin Ormaza, PhD Oceanographer