I appreciate the detail you put into this write up. It helps to explain why folks shouldn't assume that a 'strong el nino' guarantees rain in their area, no matter breaks records for 'strength'. The point you make about el nino not being alone in the teleconnection mix is one that seems to get lost in all the el nino talk. How the AO, NAO and PDO impact el nino is still not well enough understood and it's important that people who rely heavily on these forecasts (agriculture, water utilities, etc.) get that just like our day to day weather forecasts, there's always uncertainty with mother nature. NOAA CPC does a great job! But you guys don't control the weather right?! You just do your best to provide the best information clearly. Thanks for the insight!