Michelle, Loved your explanation. We see the same kind of influences out here in the tropical islands of the western North Pacific. While the over all pattern now is a very dry one as expected, there are some areas (e.g., Pohnpei and Kosrae) where the drought has been delayed (we think) and some other areas where 1 or 2 days of moderate to heavy showers occur over a 1-month period of otherwise very dry conditions. But, we still have to make sure the people across the region are prepared for a severe drought.